China sent the April batch of referrals for parents with log-in-dates ("LID") through 10-26-2005. Bryan and I have a LID of 6-14-2006. This means that there are approximately 8 months worth of families with LIDs who will receive their children before we do. This does not mean that we have 8 more months to wait though because China is issuing referrals at a super slow pace. China releases referrals just about once per month. In April, China only referred 2 days of LIDs (10-25-2005 and 10-26-2005). In the past 6 months, China has referred an average of 13 LIDs per month. What does that mean for us? That is the ga-zillion dollar question! It really depends on China's future "productivity" and you would have to possess a crystal ball to know this. Using a productivity of 13 LIDs per month, Bryan and I will not receive our referral until November 2008. This would represent a wait of 29 months between LID and referral date and we already have waited 10 months, so we would have 19 more months to wait.
If their productivity increases to 15 LIDs per month, Bryan and I will receive our referral in early September 2008; a productivity of 20 LIDs per month would get us a referral in April 2008. Some people believe that the China's productivity will continue to slow down before it gets better. The wait truly depends on the available number of "paper-ready" children that China's orphanages make available for international adoption.
I have included my tables and graphs below that I update every month when China releases their referrals. I am such a nerd!